Tegenstrijdige verklaringen van Commissie over Oekraïne (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European Commission's attempts at a single message on Ukraine has once again been undermined.

A circulated speech prepared for Regional Policy Commissioner Danuta Hübner - but not in fact held - says that Ukraine could join the 25-nation bloc by 2015.

"But of course a massive change will occur as the union grows to absorb Turkey and possibly Ukraine by around 2015", said the speech prepared for Mrs Hübner.

"These two countries would add around 125 million citizens to the union, bringing the total population to around 635 million or 40 percent more than today".

The speech was supposed to be held at a seminar at Sussex University in England last Friday (25 February) but Mrs Hübner's spokeswoman said the Commissioner decided not to give the speech because the audience was more interested in other issues such as regional policy.

Mrs Hübner's speech follows a similar line taken by the EU Communications Commissioner Margot Wallström last month.

Mrs Wallström was quoted as saying that "eventually it is a realistic vision for the future that Ukraine should join [the EU] without today going out and saying we have a concrete date or an offer".

These lapses are making it harder for the EU to stick to the line that membership of the 25-nation club is not on the table for Kiev.

It has been insisting that the EU's Action Plan with Ukraine, which involves strengthening economic, trade and cultural ties between the two sides, is the basis for its relationship.

However, with Turkey having been given the green light for EU talks later this year, pressure from Kiev has been growing.

According to the treaties any European country can apply for membership of the European Union.

Changing the institutional arrangements?

The speech prepared for the regional commissioner also touched another controversial subject by suggesting that institutional changes may be required when Turkey and Ukraine join the EU.

Representation in the EU institutions touches at the heart of the balance of power in Europe - and this was reflected in the bitter negotiations on voting arrangements in the new European Constitution.

To undo this again ahead of possible EU membership of Turkey and Ukraine would be a major step.

But it has been suggested before. In an interview with Le Figaro last month, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said "If it is necessary to change the rules [for Turkish membership] we will do so, but that is not an issue today".