Europese Commissie nerveus in aanloop naar referenda in Frankrijk en Nederland (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - EU member states should press ahead with efforts to ratify the Constitution even if France says "no" in its 29 May referendum, the European Commission has urged.

Recent speculation by EU leaders that a French no could derail the Constitution project as a whole, sparked the European Commission's statement.

Brussels pointed out that an appendix to the draft treaty already contains a mechanism for dealing with ratification problems.

"The commission, like everybody else, is worried about the trend we see in France and we hope that the figures will change before the referendum", Francoise Le Bail, the Commission's spokeswoman told journalists on Friday (22 April).

She said the EU executive "may discuss the issue in an informal way," but added that it is not the Commission's job to decide what should happen next should France vote 'no'.

She said the appendix to the draft treaty should be the main "yardstick" and "reference point" for member states' reactions.

Rules should a referendum fail

The appendix includes a declaration that states "if, two years after the signature of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, four fifths of the Member States have ratified it and one or more Member States have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter will be referred to the European Council."

"The declaration is our main reference, so the Member States should conclude ratification so that the European Council can make its calculations", said Ms Le Bail.

Czech MEP Jan Zahradil (EPP-ED) takes a different view, however.

"Member states cannot abide by the rules attached to a Treaty, which has not yet been ratified, that would be nonsense", he indicated.

Mr Zahradil recently formally asked the Commission to give him a legal opinion on the failed ratification scenario, but the deadline for the response expired with no answer.

The EU is widely expected to revert to the Nice Treaty if the Constitution flops.

Made for Britain, used for France?

"The declaration is not legally binding, but it leaves the door open for this Constitution to be approved even if some of the countries reject it", EU legal expert, Klaus Heeger, commented.

In practise, this would lead to a multi-speed EU, with the new treaty having a legally binding force in some states but not in others.

Pundits and politicians alike agree that a rejection of the text by France, a powerful founding member of the EU, would be a special case though.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair remarked this week that the UK referendum would only be held if there is a Constitution to vote on at all, referring to its potential slaughter at the French ballot boxes.