Fransen over paar dagen naar stembus voor cruciale verkiezingen (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Racked by high unemployment and low growth and facing a severe crisis of confidence in a globalised world, France is heading for crucial presidential elections on Sunday.

Following months of fevered political debate in the country, voter registration is up by four percent on the last elections in 2002, yet a great part of the electorate (as much as 40%) remains undecided.

Nicolas Sarkozy on the right, Segolene Royal on the left and the centrist Francois Bayrou - leading the 12-strong field in that order - have all promised to make a clean break from the past.

But none of them appear to have entirely convinced their natural supporters.

Mr Sarkozy, who last year notoriously spoke of getting rid of the "scum" in the banlieues has promised to be tough on law and order and cut taxes. But his divisive politics and hardline attitude to immigration and justice matters is proving too right wing for some conservative voters.

Once aligning himself with all things American - last year he said he enjoyed being called "Sarkozy the American" - he continues to raise controversy. He suggested last week that "people are born paedophiles." But a new softer 'Sarko' has also been on display in recent weeks hoping to woo those voters that French papers have said he is scaring off.

Meanwhile, Ms Royal has a 100-point presidential programme but has not managed to persuade voters she has a clear political vision. Early in her campaign she put off answers to difficult policy questions.

But her answers, when they came, such as promises to create 500,000 state-funded jobs for young people (where unemployment runs close to 20 percent) and raise the minimum wage were not seen as convincing.

Repeated gaffes, particularly in the area of foreign policy, as well as internal disputes within the fractious socialist party have further dented her credibility.

And the person who could have capitalised on the voter uncertainty in the left and right camps, Mr Bayou, has failed to set the French electorate alight. Occupying the middle ground, and presenting himself as a man of the people who will bridge the gap between left and right, the former education minister has presented a programme that is a mix of social policy and pro-business reform.

Voter uncertainty

His biggest chance is likely to come from the fact that many left wing voters will do anything to keep Mr Sarkozy out of office. Polls show that Mr Sarkozy will win both the first and the second round. But these same polls show that Mr Bayrou has a much better chance than Ms Royal of beating Mr Sarkozy in a second round run-off on 6 May.

Sunday's vote could therefore see this son of a farmer from the Pyrenees pick up many ballots from nervous voters from the left.

Adding further to the electoral uncertainty is National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in fourth place. Now 78 years old, his views are as extreme and virulent as ever. Last weekend he said he "regretted" president Jacques Chirac's acknowledgement of the French government's responsibility for deporting French Jews during the Holocaust. He has also suggested that Mr Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian immigrant, is not French enough to be president.

How he will do in Sunday's vote is difficult to predict - particularly as people are traditionally reluctant to admit to supporting him. On the other hand, the 2002 huge shock when he got through to the second round seeing off the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin is still fresh in many voters' minds.

Fragile France

What is clear though, is that whoever gets the keys to the Elysee Palace will inherit a France that is both economically and socially fragile.

Last year economic growth was 2.1 percent while the eurozone average is 2.7 percent. Unemployment stands at 8.4 percent. It was rocked in 2005 by violent riots in its cities by discontented youths largely from immigrant backgrounds.

Meanwhile attempts to bring in structural reform making it easier to hire and fire employees ended in a humiliating climbdown in 2006 for French prime minister Dominique de Villepin.

On the European level, the government is seen to have lost stature since the EU constitution was rejected by French voters two years ago. Fear of globalisation and loss of job security and the expansive welfare state were thought to have contributed to the Non. Since then Paris has often been portrayed as fighting a rearguard action in Brussels trying to preserve protect France's economy from liberalisation.

The long and pressing to-do list means the next president is unlikely to get much of a political honeymoon at home. The same can also be said of the European stage with the new leader to be plunged straight into negotiations on a revised treaty for the bloc.