In de Zuid-Kaukasus wordt gedacht aan het EU-lidmaatschap (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - A group of some 70,000 stateless highlanders living on the Russia-Georgia border could by 2012 be heading for EU citizenship, if the self-admittedly "bold" vision of local leader Dmitri Sanakoev and the Georgian government comes to pass.

"I think South Ossetia as a whole will become an autonomous part of Georgia in the next half a year and...in 2012 [Georgia] will become a candidate for membership of the EU," Mr Sanakoev told EUobserver in an interview in Brussels on Wednesday (27 June).

His visit - the first by a South Caucasus rebel leader to the EU capital - saw Mr Sanakoev address the European Parliament in his native Ossetian, with the speech broadcast on South Ossetian TV to show that he is being taken seriously on the European stage.

South Ossetia is officially part of Georgia, but the region broke away from central control during a civil war in 1991 and 1992, which saw Mr Sanakoev shooting a Chechen-made Kalashnikov at Georgian soldiers from a trench on a mountain near his home town of Tshinkvali.

Today, South Ossetia is controlled by two rebel chiefs: Mr Sanakoev, based in the town of Kurta, who is currently negotiating with Tbilisi to bring the region back under Georgian control, amid guarantees on power-sharing and the future status of the Ossetian language.

And Eduard Kokoity, based 10 km down the road from Kurta in Tshinkvali, who wants to create an independent country that may one day join Russia. Mr Kokoity reportedly controls 4,000 Russian-armed men, with regular shoot outs between his militias and Georgian troops.

"If there was hope that South Ossetia could join Russia peacefully, I would have been in favour. But there isn't. So the only realistic option is to join Georgia," Mr Sanakoev said. "I don't want my homeland to be a hotspot on the map. I want my children to grow up in a normal situation."

The EU appeal

He explained that the long-term prospect of Georgia's EU membership and the EU-funded economic projects that are already being rolled out have made the pro-Tbilisi path more attractive to poverty-stricken South Ossetians, who "want to become Europeans as well."

His main message to Brussels was that the EU should lean on Russia to stop meddling in South Ossetia, with Mr Sanakoev saying that shipments of guns, rockets and armoured personnel carriers from Russia to the Kokoity camp have jumped up since late 2006.

"The EU can help us by trying to improve Georgia-Russia relations, by taking a certain stance on such issues, by not letting Russia use the situation for its own purposes," he explained. "European countries can play an important part in this process."

Mr Sanakoev would also welcome EU badge-wearing customs officials on the border with Russia, but despite the "importance" of Europe, the rebel leader believes that decisive change in South Ossetia will come only after Russian leader Vladimir Putin leaves the Kremlin.

The post-Putin phase

"After presidential elections in Russia, I know for sure, the problems in South Ossetia will be resolved," he said. "Russia will change its foreign policy. Everything depends on Russia, whether it is ready to help Kokoity to sabotage the [reunification] process or not."

With France calling for a debate on Europe's final frontiers in December and with the EU's current "neighbourhood policy" for Georgia carrying no promise of enlargement, it remains to be seen whether Mr Sanakoev's "bold programme" will one day lead "his people" into the EU.

But analysts, such as the Open Society and the US-based NGO Jamestown, believe that for the first time in 15 years the frozen conflict of South Ossetia is beginning to move. The evolution of Sanakoev's role "reflects an incipient sea change at the level of mentalities among local Ossetians" Jamestown's Vladimir Socor writes.