Besluit Nederlandse regering over referendum Europees Hervormingsverdrag verwacht (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The Dutch government is expected today to decide against holding a referendum on the new EU i treaty - but parties in the Dutch parliament look set to ignore this decision and push for an own-initiative poll.
Well-placed sources in The Hague told EUobserver that the Dutch cabinet is likely to propose in its weekly meeting on Friday (21 September) that the EU's Reform Treaty will be ratified by parliament, not by referendum.
They said that although two Labour Party ministers are in favour of a referendum, Dutch prime minister Jan-Peter Balkenende - a Christian Democrat - has thrown all his weight behind parliamentary ratification of the treaty.
The prime minister and other cabinet ministers feel that the Netherlands cannot afford a second EU referendum - possibly ending in a "no" - after Dutch voters in 2005 overwhelmingly rejected the EU constitution.
Mr Balkenende last week received a boost from the Council of State, the Dutch government's highest advisory body, which in a key report said there is no legal need for a referendum because the reform treaty - unlike the EU constitution - contains no "constitutional" elements.
But despite the cabinet decision today, the referendum debate is far from over.
Three opposition parties in the Dutch parliament have said they will propose an own-initiative bill to organise a referendum. The new referendum bill is to be put forward by two pro-European parties - the Greens and the left-liberal D66 - as well as the eurosceptic Socialist party.
D66 member of parliament Boris van der Ham told EUobserver "It is not logical to ask people in 2005 - what do you think? - and then not put the changed treaty to them now."
Mr van der Ham added "we shouldn't be afraid that there will be a second no." "The first referendum was the first one ever on European integration. There was a lot of frustration, about the euro, about EU commitments not being met. That effect will be less this time."
The move by the three parties is reminiscent of the situation in 2005, when the parliament - against the wishes of prime minister Balkenende - organised a referendum on the EU constitution.
The Labour party, which is in the government coalition, could back the opposition bill and help create a parliamentary majority for a referendum. Labour has not officially taken a position on the issue, but prominent members of the party have come out in favour of a fresh EU poll.
"I do expect that there will be a majority in the parliament for the referendum bill. Labour has on many occasions said they are in favour of the idea," Liberal (VVD) member of parliament Han ten Broeke said. "Either they back down under pressure from Balkenende or they stick to their position."
Anti-referendum voices hope that a parliamentary referendum bill could eventually be blocked in the senate, which is more conservative in its composition.
Christian Democrat and Liberal senators are seen to be against having a referendum - but the Liberal VVD party holds a key position in the senate and could still tip the balance towards a pro-referendum vote.
Prominent VVD member and former European Commissioner Frits Bolkestein in an opinion article in daily De Volkskrant on Friday called upon his party to back a new referendum. He writes that a new treaty poll is necessary to counter the idea that Europe is being forced on people through the "back door."
The Dutch senate however traditionally has a more legal than political role, and could therefore be more prone to follow the Council of State line saying there is no legal requirement for a treaty poll.
"I think the Council of State advice will weigh heavily on the senate - including on the VVD faction," according to Mr Ten Broeke.