BCI laat verdere daling Europese industriële productie zien (en)

The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell significantly in February to yet another low, reaching its lowest point since January 1985. It confirms the expectation that the outcome of the year-on-year industrial production growth for January will be markedly negative, following on from the sharp fall already recorded in December 2008. It also suggests that annual industrial production growth will remain clearly negative in February 2009. The drop in the BCI reflects a general deterioration in most of its underlying components. Managers' assessment of the current overall order books and export order books is increasingly negative. Managers also reported a sharp fall in the production trend observed in recent months, while the stocks of finished goods stabilised – though at a very high level – and production expectations remained broadly stable.

The BCI is based on a factor analysis of the euro area aggregate balances (seasonally adjusted) of five of the monthly questions in the industry survey (only employment and selling-price expectations are excluded).

Full details of the Business Climate Indicator are available on the Europa website:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm

The next BCI Results are due to be published on 30 March 2009.