Relatie met EU is geen thema bij presidentsverkiezingen in Oekraïne (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - With one week to go to presidential elections, the issue of EU i integration is invisible in campaigning in Ukraine and the most pro-EU candidate is set for a drubbing.
The vote on 17 January is being billed by some experts as another turning point for the country, which five years ago overthrew the authoritarian, pro-Russian government of Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovych and plied a course for EU and Nato membership.
In a mark of the disenchantment with the outcome of the so-called Orange Revolution, Viktor Yanukovych is poised to sweep back into power at the end of the week.
According to a poll carried out by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology between 12 and 24 December, Mr Yanukovych will walk away with 30 percent of the vote in the first round and 43 percent in the second round.
His closest rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, will get 16 percent in the first round and 29 percent in the run-off. The hero of the 2004 "Orange Revolution," Viktor Yushchenko, will get just 3.5 percent in the first round.
Of the three candidates, only Mr Yushchenko has unequivocally said that his main goal is to get Ukraine into the EU and Nato.
Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko make EU-friendly statements in their manifestos. But they hedge them with conditions that may help put national priorities or regional alliances first.
"Ukraine's strategic choice - full membership in the European Union, taking into account the specifics of its geopolitical location and preserving its historic, national and cultural originality," Mr Yanukovych's manifesto says.
"When we build Europe in Ukraine, Ukraine will become a member of the European Union," Ms Tymoshenko's text says.
In terms of day-to-day electioneering, the EU issue has dropped out of view as campaigns focus on Ukraine's recession and the personalities of the candidates.
The billboards, TV and radio spots talk about the economy, employment, pensions, the army and the fight against corruption. There is a near-total absence of "EU rhetoric" in candidates' remarks, Olena Prystayko, an analyst at the EU-Russia centre in Brussels, who has been staying in Kiev for the past two weeks, told EUobserver.
Mr Yanukovych's main slogan is: "He is the leader. A real leader. The only leader who is capable of uniting the country." Ms Tymoshenko has gone for: "She works. She is Ukraine" and "They oppose. She works."
The EU at a recent summit in Kiev warned Ukraine to conduct normal elections in order to maintain neighbourly relations.
International monitors have not raised any red flags so far. Ms Tymoshenko has even invited Mr Yanukovych to hold a TV debate on 15 January in a nod to European standards.
But with the big day looming and with most Ukrainians having little trust in their public institutions, there are indications that people will once again take to the streets to push through a result in 2010.
Ukrainan news agency Unian.net on Monday (11 January) reported that Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko have each organised for tens of thousands of their supporters to come to the capital at the end of the week in order to hold protests at strategic points, such as the central square, the Majdan.