Soedan overweegt EU-model als oplossing voor oliekwestie (en)
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - An EU monitoring mission in Southern Sudan has issued a largely positive preliminary verdict on last week's referendum on independence, although the border area of Abyei remains an ongoing concern.
Speaking to EUobserver from the northern capital of Khartoum on Monday (17 January), the mission's chief observer, Socialist MEP Veronique de Keyser, described the southern vote on whether to split from the country's northern region as a "credible process".
"We are happy and relieved, people predicted great turmoil but thankfully that has not materialised," said Ms de Keyser who heads a team of 104 observers and analysts from the 27 EU member states, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Canada.
The Belgian euro deputy warned however that a strategy was urgently needed to diffuse the ongoing tension in the oil-rich border area of Abyei, where dozens have been killed already this month. "The situation is explosive. If a solution is not found all the other political issues could be blocked," she said, adding that northern isolation would also have grave consequences.
Last week's southern Sudanese referendum on independence was the center-piece of a 2005 peace accord that ended a decades-old civil war, estimated to have killed roughly 2 million people since 1983. A separate referendum in Abyei was cancelled after officials failed to agree certain parameters including how to define an Abyei resident.
Observers attribute fighting between northern Arab herdsmen and the Ngok Dinka people living in the area to a long-running dispute over cattle grazing rights, although some local leaders fear the issue is being used as a proxy-battle for the area's oil reserves.
China is particularly interested in Abyei's final resting place, the area being home to the Defra block - an oilfield administered by China National Petroleum Corporation. Bejing has invested considerable diplomatic energy cozying up to the northern regime of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's president who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for his role in the genocide in Darfur.
The south's referendum results next month are expected to show a vast majority in favour of secession, handing a newly independent state in July roughly 80 percent of Sudan's current oil production of 490,000 barrels a day. Abyei accounts for roughly 2,500 barrels a day, Al-Sir Sid Ahmed, media adviser to the country's oil minister, said last week.
Export access via the north to the Red Sea will remain a key issue for southern oil producers if Sudan splits as expected, with national officials touting an EU-style joint institution as a possible solution. "Both Al-Bashir and [southern leader] Salva Kiir have talked about the EU model. What they mean exactly remains to be seen," said Ms Keyser.
Regional experts agree the idea is on the table. "Some form of joint structure to manage oil reserves and pipeline sharing is gaining traction," said Richard Gowan, an African security expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.
"The model is obviously not the EU of today but the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) of previous years," said Mr Gowan. The ECSC was first proposed by French foreign minister Robert Schuman on 9 May 1950 as a way to prevent further war between France and Germany. It created Europe's first supranational institutions, designed to monitor a common coal and steel market shared by its six founding members.
A joint Sudanese structure would probably reassure oil investors in the region, dominated by China National Petroleum Corp., Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd. and India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Sudan is the third-biggest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa.
The likelihood of South Sudan gaining independence this summer is also prompting questions over the region's ability for self-governance, together with a potential supporting role for the EU.
EU battlegroups to support UN peacekeeping troops are among the ideas being considered, this website understands, although a police training mission is more likely.
"As we have seen in Afghanistan, police training is not always the best answer. It is frequently an alibi for real action," said Mr Gowan.
"If there is one thing the EU does well it's create bureaucrats. The bloc should lend officials to build institutional capacity in Southern Sudan. If EU high representative Catherine Ashton is ready to put energy into the issue it would be a good way to increase the external action service's credibility."