Britse regering publiceert referendumvraag (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The UK Government has published the question voters will be asked in the forthcoming UK referendum on the EU Constitution, kicking off what promises to be a long and bitter battle.

The question on the ballot sheet will be as follows: "Should the United Kingdom approve the treaty establishing a Constitution for the European Union?"

Presenting the question today (26 January) in the UK parliament, Foreign Minister Jack Straw said that the UK would be "isolated and weak" if the Constitution were rejected.

Starting gun

And the publication of the question provoked a flurry of statements from both those in favour of the Constitution and those against, effectively starting the campaign.

The opposition Conservative Party, which opposes the Constitution, said that the question appears straightforward but has warned that the Constitution will lead to a European superstate.

They have said that if they win the election next Spring, a vote will be held by October.

Britain in Europe, a pro-Constitution campaign group, also welcomed the simplicity of the question and said it hoped that voters could now concentrate on the "important issues facing Britain and its relationship with its closest partners in Europe".

Their Director, Lucy Powell, said in a statement, "There will be a stark choice facing voters: to continue with our present course of active engagement in Europe or take a step into the unknown by rejecting the Treaty".

"The first course has served us well for over 30 years, ensuring British prosperity and higher living standards. The second course of action is fraught with uncertainty and would be a leap into the unknown".

Vote No's Neil O Brien said, "Tony Blair promised a great campaign in which 'battle would be joined'. Now the Government is reduced to trying to sneak out the EU Constitution bill without even a press conference".

"The reality is that the Government doesn't want to discuss the EU Constitution ahead of the election because they know it is extremely unpopular with voters and with business".

Early 2006

An exact date for the poll has not yet been set, but insiders believe that the vote will be held in early 2006.

In an interview in today's Financial Times, UK Prime Minister Blair said that the referendum would be held "some time in 2006 but when, I don't know".

The UK is due to hold an election early this spring - probably in May - and it will take over the Presidency of the EU on 1 July this year, so the vote is almost certain to be after these two events.

The timing may prove to be crucial.

The UK is arguably the country most likely to vote against the Constitution, which needs to be ratified by all 25 member states to come into force.

"Yes" campaigners are hoping that the UK will vote last on the issue, with the text already ratified by all 24 other member states. This would increase the pressure on the UK to vote "yes" and strengthen the argument that the UK would be isolated in the event of a "no" vote.

But it looks as if Denmark, Poland and the Czech Republic may vote after the UK, nullifying this effect.

Strong feelings against the Constitution

Whenever the poll is held, the Government is set for a tough task in persuading a sceptical British public of the merits of the Constitution.

Current opinion polls show that roughly two-thirds are against the Treaty. However, people close to the debate say privately that the gap will narrow after the election (which Mr Blair is widely expected to win), when the Government steps up its campaign.

Big battle ahead

Those arguing in favour of the Constitution include most Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats (third party) and the Britain in Europe campaign.

They argue that Britain will be isolated if it fails to ratify the Treaty and that the UK may be forced to leave the EU.

Those arguing against include the Conservative Party, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party, the Scottish National Party and the No campaign.

They say that signing the Constitution would give too many powers away to Brussels.